Feb 27, 2023Liked by Arda Capital

Totally agree with everything here. If these guys ever want to make real money the bundle has to make a comeback - however it is extremely anti-competitive behavior (eg. it’s basically a monopoly).

For the bundle to work, everyone has to play ball though, most people don’t care about sports so having netflix as a cheaper alternative screws up the whole thing I think.

That’s why the Disney bundle is so terrible economically, bundling only works when you are forcing people to pay full price for everything or get nothing, otherwise you just have a bloated package in a competitve market, forcing you to discount (1.99 disney +...)

The interesting question is what happens if it stays competitive. I think the winners will be the smaller players with very targeted, well monetized audiences (‘superfans’). Something like Discovery+ works well, clear demo, low cost per sub because the content is narrow, efficient pricing.. HBO also benefits from having real pricing power and a monopoly on ‘great shows’. WB television is probably worth an NBCU or an Apple TV+. Looks like a very strong combo to compete in general entertainment.

Don’t think Disney+ is viable in its current form, have doubts about PARA, Peacock and the other small ones. Next few years bound to be interesting

Expand full comment

The piece didn't touch on the other approach of completely sitting out the content wars a la Sony, and just taking a mercenary view.

Expand full comment

I'm excited for more blogging from your team.

Expand full comment